Which Candidate Do 2020 Election Polls Favor?

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Although everyday life in the U.S. now looks vastly different due to COVID-19, one aspect of 2020 thus far remains unchanged: The presidential election will still take place in November of this year. It is not yet known whether mail-in ballots or traditional in-person voting will dominate the election, as the United States Postal Service has suffered during the pandemic while social distancing requirements point towards voting by mail being safer. It is also not yet known which of the two presidential candidates is likelier to win, though plenty of 2020 election polls have been conducted.

Where and with whom is Joe Biden ahead in 2020 election polls?

According to a recent survey, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is ahead of Republican incumbent Donald Trump by seven points in Arizona’s 2020 election polls. The last time Arizona voted for the Democratic presidential candidate was in 1996 when the state voted for Bill Clinton during his reelection campaign. Biden’s recent prospective seven-point lead over Trump is the third consecutive Arizona poll to show this lead, and surveys in Arizona since February 2019 have consistently placed Biden ahead of Trump. The only exception was a December 2019 poll that gave Trump a two-point advantage.

Pollsters have found similar trends in Wisconsin, a state in which Trump earned 0.77 more points in the 2016 election than did his competitor, Democratic candidate and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton. There, two consecutive polls have placed Biden three points ahead of Trump in the 2020 election. When these new polls are compared to how Wisconsin voted in the 2016 election, the result gives Biden a six-point lead over Trump.

Nationally, early polling results track with the numbers from Arizona and Wisconsin. In recent weeks, a variety of reputable nationwide polls have given Biden leads ranging from four to 10 points. The last poll to show Trump tied with Biden was conducted from April 26 to April 29, and the last poll to show Trump ahead of Biden was conducted on April 2 and 3.

Polls leaning in Biden’s favor may showcase a key trend. In contrast to the 2016 election, older voters may also be turning toward the Democratic nominee. Both public polling and Trump-commissioned private polling suggest that Biden may have the lead among this key demographic: Although Trump earned 13.3 more points among voters 65 years and older in the 2016 election, some polls show him losing to Biden by one point among these voters.

Where and with whom is Donald Trump ahead in 2020 election polls?

One poll conducted May 7-10 has shown Donald Trump maintaining his lead in swing states that voted for him in 2016, including Arizona and Wisconsin. The poll that found this result differs from most election polls in that, instead of surveying a large group of voters in one state, it surveyed a similar number of voters spread across battleground states. The contrast between this result and the many polls favoring Biden point to a key lesson many voters and pundits took away from 2016: Polls may not be trustworthy, and only results from the day of voting can accurately determine a winner.

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