What Are October’s Final Presidential Polls Saying?

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The presidential election between President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is potentially almost over, with Election Day only five days away. With the election so near, many are wondering what October’s final presidential polls are saying. Others are wondering how President Trump will react after the election as well.

What are national polls saying?

According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate data of polling averages, Biden remains ahead of President Trump in national polls by nine points. The election’s top battleground states are Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona. According to RealClearPolitics’ average polling data, Biden is winning most battleground states by small margins. The largest margin is in Michigan, where Biden has an eight-point lead on Trump. 

In Arizona, President Trump and Biden are estimated to be nearly tied, with Biden leading by approximately two points. According to another recent poll, Biden has a narrow lead over President Trump in Florida, the swing state with the largest number of electors. Polling averages show Trump’s lead in Texas stood at about one percentage point as of this morning.

What is Trump saying?

On September 23, President Trump wouldn’t commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election. Trump complained about unsubstantiated claims of ballot fraud and signaled if people “get rid of the ballots,” only then there will be a peaceful transfer of power. Although Republicans are not as worried about Trump’s statements as are Democrats, both parties have said that the president should peacefully yield power to whoever wins the election.

On October 15, at President Trump’s town hall debate, Trump agreed to concede if he loses the election. After a while of not addressing the transfer of power and other topics, Trump told NBC moderator Savannah Guthrie that he is prepared to hand over the White House’s keys if he fails to secure enough electoral college votes. Still, he continued to say wants an honest election.

What if Trump doesn’t concede?

Many people have been concerned that President Trump so often suggests he will not concede if he loses the election. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell did not specifically name Trump, but he said that whoever wins the election will be inaugurated on January 20. McConnell added that an orderly transition of power has happened every four years since 1792.

Although Trump eventually agreed to concede, some have suggested that Trump might use his power to prevent a decisive outcome against him. In Philadelphia, Trump’s campaign is videotaping voters while they return their ballots. In Nevada, Trump’s campaign is suing to force election officials in the Democratic-heavy Clark County to rigorously examine ballot signatures for discrepancies that will make the ballot null and void. The Trump campaign has also tried to join a lawsuit against members of the Navajo Nation in Arizona, which sought to allow the counting of ballots received from reservations after Election Day because of mail delays. 

Some people believe that pro-Trump Republican allies in the electoral college and Congress may attempt to obstruct Biden’s victory. While some experts suggest that the courts and Congress will appropriately resolve the election, not everyone is so sure.

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